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OOTP 16 Picks Chicago Cubs to Beat New York Mets in NLCS, Advance to World Series

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This year’s National League Championship Series features two teams that are on the rise again after several down years. The Chicago Cubs haven’t been in the playoffs since 2008 and famously haven’t played in the World Series since 1945, with their only two championships happening in 1907 and 1908. And then there’s that much-talked-about movie angle: A news headline in a certain popular film sequel says that Chicago has won the 2015 World Series.

Meanwhile, the New York Mets’ previous postseason appearance was in 2006, and their last World Series appearance happened in 2000, when they lost a so-called “subway series” to the New York Yankees. Like Chicago, they have just a pair of world championships under their belts (1986 and 1969), but unlike their NLCS counterpart, they’ve only been around since 1962.

We’ve already simmed the ALCS and found that one possibly too close to call, although we’re giving an oh-so-slight edge to the Toronto Blue Jays. As with the sims we ran for that prediction, we’ve simmed the NLCS ten times and have created a composite of the results. This time, the results were more clear-cut: We expect the Chicago Cubs to win, and we explain why below.

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OOTP 16 Gives a Very Slight Edge to Toronto in ALCS

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The Toronto Blue Jays are in the American League Championship Series for the first time since 1993, thanks to a Game 5 ALDS victory over the Texas Rangers that featured one of the wildest innings in baseball playoff history. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals are in the ALCS for the second straight year and are seeking a repeat trip to the World Series.

(How’d we do with our ALDS picks? We were right on the money: We said Toronto and Kansas City would advance, and the majority of the series sims went five games. (Don’t ask us about our NLDS predictions.))

As with the previous playoff series this year, we’ve run multiple sims to create a composite of the results, but this time we’ve done so ten times, and we’re glad we did, because we saw some interesting results, as you’ll see. A caveat: Due to circumstances beyond my control, I needed to be out of the office on Friday, so I’m simming, writing, and publishing on Thursday evening. I’ve set up both teams’ rosters based on the information available to me right now, with some educated guesses made for things I don’t know. (It’s close to 7 PM Pacific time on Thursday night as I type this.)

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Franchise Hockey Manager 2 Predicts Rangers Stanley Cup Win in 2016

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After running repeated simulations with the opening night NHL rosters, Franchise Hockey Manager 2’s ultra-detailed game engine has made its choice for the 2016 Stanley Cup winner: the New York Rangers.

While the Rangers typically finished the regular season in second or third in the Metropolitan Division, their veteran defenders and outstanding goaltending by Henrik Lundqvist made them tough to beat in the playoffs.

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OOTP 16 Predicts New York Yankees to Top Houston Astros in AL Wild Card Game

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The 2015 Major League Baseball playoffs have arrived, and the first stop involves the American League and National League Wild Card play-in games. We simmed tonight’s game between the host New York Yankees and Houston Astros five times with Out of the Park Baseball 16’s Simulation Module and compiled the results. You’ll find the outcomes below.

Yes, we’ll be simming tomorrow night’s National League Wild Card play-in game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs, as well as the rest of the playoff series.

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We’ve Simmed Game 7 and We’re Still Calling it For the Royals

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(Don’t forget: OOTP 15 is 50% off and iOOTP 2014 is 80% off for the World Series! Click the links to get your copies.)

Before this World Series began, we simmed it five times and found that, unsurprisingly, it would likely go the distance, since four of the sims went seven games and the other one lasted six. We also called the series for the Royals, given the fact that they won three of the sims (all 7-game series) and our gut feeling that they had a bit more magic than the Giants possessed. (Or maybe that feeling in our gut was those tacos we had for lunch.)

So here we are: The Royals blasted the Giants, 10-0, in Game 6 to set up a final, winner-take-all Game 7. Tim Hudson vs. Jeremy Guthrie, with various starters available in relief, if necessary. We decided to do 10 sims of Game 7 and set up both teams accordingly, using their Game 6 lineups, since they were again facing righties, and we made the Game 6 starters unavailable.

We also made Giants reliever Jean Machi unavailable, since he pitched three innings in Game 6 — And since he also gave up two runs on five hits and now had an 8.10 ERA for the series, we figured Bochy likely wouldn’t want to bring him in anyway. (As you’ll see, though, A.I. Bochy decided to ride the Madison Bumgarner train to the championship whenever he could, with some interesting results.)

Here’s a look at the scores from the games:

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This World Series Could Be Too Close to Call, But We’re Calling it For the Royals

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(Don’t forget: OOTP 15 is 50% off and iOOTP 2014 is 80% off for the World Series! Click the links to get your copies.)

We thought we’d try something different with our World Series sim. This time we simmed the series five times and put together a composite that gives us a pretty good look at what will likely happen. The big takeaway? This is, unsurprisingly, a very evenly matched series: four of the sims went seven games and the fifth ended in six. Both teams won 17 games total.

Our pick? Our gut says the Royals, not only because they won three of the five sims (all seven-game series) but also because, when we step away from the computer and think about both teams, they seem like the one that has the stars aligned overhead just right. Sure, the Giants have had their share of magic this postseason, but the Royals have simply had more of it.

As you’ll see, though, their bullpen better remain airtight, because their starters were out-pitched by the Giants. They had a clear edge in the closer department, though, and of the 21 games (out of 34) that were won by two runs or less, the Royals prevailed, 12-9. That tells us you need to watch for plenty of tense late-inning drama in this series.

You want stats? Sure, we’ve put tons of stats in a Google Docs spreadsheet that you can peruse, and we have an overview of the top level stats from each series below.

Items of note follow:

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2014 NLCS Sim: Giants Win Game 7, Head to the World Series

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We’ve decided to wrap up our sim of the 2014 NLCS in one shot. While real life has the Giants up, three games to one, heading into Game 5, we had the series tied after four. Here’s how the final three games played out in Out of the Park Baseball 15:

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Cardinals Tie NLCS, 2-2, With 4-2 Victory in Game 4

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The St. Louis Cardinals jumped out to a 3-0 lead, starter Shelby Miller allowed two runs through seven solid innings, and a parade of relievers no-hit the San Francisco Giants’ lineup in the final two frames. The Cardinals’ 4-2 victory evened up this simulated NLCS at two games apiece. With the Giants up 2-1 in the real series, could OOTP match reality when the real NLCS Game 4 starts in a couple hours?

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Royals Edge Orioles, 3-2, to Even ALCS at 2-2

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While the real world Royals take a 3-0 series lead into today’s Game 4 against the Orioles, the virtual version found themselves down, two games to one, against the Orioles in our simulation. Like they did all year in real life, though, the Royals found ways to scratch out runs and used their bullpen to seal a 3-2 victory that tied this virtual ALCS at two games apiece.

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