No matter who wins the World Series this year, one team’s new generation of fans will finally know the thrill of a championship. The New York Mets last took a trip to the fall classic in 2000, when they lost a subway series to their cross-town rivals, the New York Yankees, but they haven’t won it all since that classic 1986 World Series against the Boston Red Sox. (To refresh your memory: Game 6. A rolling ball. Bill Buckner’s legs.)

Meanwhile, the Kansas City Royals have repeated as the American League pennant winner but are still seeking their first World Series win since 1985, thanks to a loss in seven games against the San Francisco Giants last year. Like the New York Mets, Kansas City’s previous World Series victory was a seven-game thriller that also featured a memorable Game 6 moment and wins in the final two games to seal the championship.

After simming the World Series 20 times with Out of the Park Baseball 16’s Simulation Module, we’re picking the Kansas City Royals to win it, since they prevailed 16 times, but they’ll likely need six or seven games to do so: Nine times the series went the full seven, with three six-game series, seven five-game series, and just one sweep. We used the Simulation Module’s new Game Importance dropdown that allows you to select “playoff,” so the AI behaves accordingly. (It will be a new feature in OOTP 17 next year.)

While Kansas City’s dominance in the number of series won may seem disheartening to New York fans, a lot of team stats belied a much more even match-up. For example, Kansas City won the per-game run differential by less than a run, 4.46 – 3.71, and the per series spread was only 26.75 – 22.25 in their favor, with each series comprising exactly six games, on average.

New York won the per-series home run differential, of course, by a 4.8 – 3.6 margin, and Kansas City prevailed in stolen bases on a per-series basis, 4.25 – 1.35, which wasn’t a surprise either. Kansas City had a slight edge in ERA, 3.34 – 3.97 per series, and in K/9 per series, 7.70 – 7.41, while New York won the BB/9 contest, 2.54 – 3.00 per series.

Perhaps New York’s formidable starting pitchers underperformed a bit in these sims, and in real life they will bear down and give their team the edge it needs to prevail. Regardless of which way the World Series really goes, we expect it to be a lengthy, exciting series.

Here’s the high level breakdown of the sims. We’ve also put together a Google Doc that breaks down the team stats in more detail. Click a sim below to see its player stats.

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