We thought we’d try something different with our World Series sim. This time we simmed the series five times and put together a composite that gives us a pretty good look at what will likely happen. The big takeaway? This is, unsurprisingly, a very evenly matched series: four of the sims went seven games and the fifth ended in six. Both teams won 17 games total.
Our pick? Our gut says the Royals, not only because they won three of the five sims (all seven-game series) but also because, when we step away from the computer and think about both teams, they seem like the one that has the stars aligned overhead just right. Sure, the Giants have had their share of magic this postseason, but the Royals have simply had more of it.
As you’ll see, though, their bullpen better remain airtight, because their starters were out-pitched by the Giants. They had a clear edge in the closer department, though, and of the 21 games (out of 34) that were won by two runs or less, the Royals prevailed, 12-9. That tells us you need to watch for plenty of tense late-inning drama in this series.
You want stats? Sure, we’ve put tons of stats in a Google Docs spreadsheet that you can peruse, and we have an overview of the top level stats from each series below.
Items of note follow: